What Game Is Joe Biden Playing with Ukraine?

After meeting with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, President Emmanuel Macron said he was optimistic about the chance for a peaceful resolution to the current crisis. Vladimir Putin assured him that “we will do everything to find compromises that can suit everyone.”

Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, felt it necessary to clarify that the two men had not agreed on any de-escalation agreement, suggesting that such an agreement could only be negotiated with Joe Biden.

Putin obviously wants to sit down with Biden. Like Washington’s allies, Putin does not quite understand the maximalist, sometimes incoherent, maneuvers by the Americans in this chess game.

An ‘Imminent’ Invasion Is Overdue

The United States has been crying wolf since November: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is imminent, a matter of days or even hours.

The Americans have claimed that the Russian invasion could result in 25,000 to 50,000 civilian casualties and the deaths of up to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers. The State Department has warned U.S. diplomats and civilians to leave Ukraine before hostilities begin. Canada has done the same.

As recently as Sunday, the White House national security adviser warned that “any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine.” Washington’s allies, even the Ukrainians, are scrambling to lessen the impact of the Biden administration’s language. The Ukrainian foreign minister said he did not believe the “apocalyptic predictions” of the Americans.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the U.S. for hurting his country’s economy by unduly fanning the flames of panic, saying, “It’s not the Titanic here.” One of his advisers believes a diplomatic solution to tensions with Russia is more likely than a military conflict. The head of the German secret service repeated what the Ukrainians said: “I believe that the decision to attack has not yet been made.”

After claiming the invasion was imminent, U.S. officials are now saying that Moscow has assembled only 70% of the military force needed for a full-scale invasion. So, was the impending invasion pure nonsense?

Intimidation: It’s Cheap and It Pays Well

Why did the American administration feel the need to panic the entire planet about an invasion of Ukraine? Could it be to divert attention from Biden’s domestic policy problems and his growing unpopularity in the polls? To show that he can stand up to Putin?

In recent decades, the United States has repeatedly invaded countries to impose its political will, with far more catastrophic failure than success. Others who are more astute use the threat of invasion to get adversaries to accede to their demands, at least in part. Intimidation is an excellent foreign policy tool. It usually pays well and costs much less than war. In this case, we’ll see if that is true for Putin.