Trump’s Foreign Policy

He is absolutely right to demand that his allies increase their military spending significantly, something he is certainly achieving quickly; the NATO secretary-general is proposing a gradual increase in military spending to 5% of gross domestic product. His aggressive dealings with allied and friendly countries has reinforced the image of the imperialist "ugly American" and has damaged the international image of the U.S., undermining its soft power.

On the other hand, it seems that Donald Trump's advisers have managed to tone down his gratuitous insults to Canada and the "forced" purchase of Greenland. As for Panama, Marco Rubio's diplomacy has already achieved its objectives earlier sought through pressure. Trump has achieved significant success in the Middle East: The fall of Bashar Assad in Syria considerably weakened Iran, there was the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the near destruction of Hamas and the exhaustion of the Houthis in Yemen — all contributing to the progress of U.S. negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program.

As for peace in Ukraine, relations have improved with President Volodymr Zelenskyy, and Vladimir Putin has agreed to negotiate directly with Ukraine.

In Latin America, trade protectionism and the weakening of American soft power favor the penetration of Chinese interests and the growth of what is known as "Active Non-Alignment." China is already South America's main trading partner.

On the other hand, in the Caribbean — the “American Mediterranean” — geopolitics has returned, and the thinking of [turn-of-the century geopoliticians] Alfred Mahan and Nicolas Spykman and the issue of national security, combined with concern over mass immigration and drug trafficking, have once again placed the region among U.S. foreign policy priorities. The Caribbean has not been as relevant as it is today since the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962, Ronald Reagan's support for the Nicaraguan Contras and the 1989 intervention in Panama.

And this is enhanced, by the way, with a secretary of state like Rubio who, supported by the influential "Florida Group” and serving also as the national security advisor, could become the most powerful secretary of state since Henry Kissinger, who also held both positions at the same time. Highly prestigious academics and intellectuals, such as Walter Russell Mead, Stephen Rosen and Hal Brands, speak of a resurgence of the Monroe Doctrine — but limited to the American Mediterranean.

This reminds me of the "No Second Cuba Policy" that flourished during the Cold War and was aimed at preventing the emergence of "a second Cuba" in the Caribbean. Let’s not forget President Lyndon B. Johnson's lament in the days of the 1965 intervention in the Dominican Republic: "What can we do in Vietnam if we can't clean up the Dominican Republic?”

The problem facing the U.S. is that there are now three “Cubas” in the Caribbean: Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. They are aligned with what The Economist calls the “chaos quartet”: Russia, Iran, North Korea and China. The coming years in the region will be “interesting,” in the sense of the Chinese curse.

Ultimately, much will depend on the economic consequences for the U.S. — and globally — of its aggressively protectionist policy.