In the New World Order, the US Will Have To Play the Role of a Regional Power*

*Editor’s Note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.

Many experts and politicians are saying that Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine is a turning point in the system of international relations. That it will mark the end of the current world order and the start of the new world order.

No arguing with that. The world order created by the Americans after the Cold War is deeply outdated. Russia’s attempt to modernize the world order, which has been the subject of Russian-American negotiations since mid-2021, has failed because of America’s stubbornness. Which is why on Feb. 24, 2022, Russia started an irreversible demolition process.

The problem is that the world cannot exist without order. No one needs chaos, even if it is controlled. The West has no politicians like the Nixon-and-Ford-era National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who had the skills to manage controlled chaos. Therefore, the new world order will replace the one currently being destroyed. The question is: What is the current world order? The U.S., China and Russia all have different views on this matter.

Speaking to America’s Business Roundtable on March 21, U.S. President Joe Biden outlined his vision for the future. In his opinion, the liberal world order established after the Cold War was not so bad. It did not create chaos and not as many people died as had between 1900 and 1946. Biden gave assurances that the U.S. will lead and unite the free world in establishing the new world order.

In Russian terms, this means that Washington still hopes to maintain roughly the same rules that were in place between 1991 and 2022. In Biden’s terms, a renewal means simply a few cosmetic and foreign policy tools changes.

Back to the Future?

The U.S. is not ready to give up its role as the greatest world power. At first glance, this appears strange, even suicidal — the U.S. no longer has the resources to remain king of the hill. Additionally, resources are understood not only and not so much as economic and military, but as volitional and institutional capabilities.

Washington has not been able to win a single military campaign since the highly questionable 2011 victory in Libya. Since about the time of former U.S. President Barack Obama’s second term, American leadership, previously not subject to doubts in the world, began to fall apart, giving way to the non-isolationist aspirations of some members of the American elite. The foreign elite began to doubt Washington’s abilities. Large-scale use of Washington-controlled global institutions (the dollar, SWIFT, etc.) to punish Russia has undermined the remnants of faith in the global and impartial intentions of these institutions — which, by the way, are the main pillar of America’s global power. Finally, the U.S. has slipped into a serious internal political crisis, associated with the radicalization of its two major political parties. And as we know, the American system can function only when the Democrats and the Republicans work together.

The last point is exactly why Biden strives to keep America on top. The one thing that unifies the American elite right now is the belief in its uniqueness. American ideology is built on this belief. Abandoning it and recognizing that the U.S. is an equal among equals will completely crumble the whole system. The whole country will fall apart afterward.

Which is exactly why Biden is trying to round everyone up and start a revanchist war to reestablish the liberal world order under American power. And not just the American elite, but the Europeans as well, who share the same American belief in global liberal uniqueness, without which they cannot exist, unlike the governments they rule. Countries and their citizens are basically taken hostage and sent to fight someone else’s war. But the fight is no longer about the globalization and democratization of the world, as the U.S. understands this is beyond its powers. It is about protecting the current position and possibilities of the collective West from China’s and Russia’s infringements.

Russia and China

Both of these countries have their own view about the bright future of the world order. Despite rumors about a Russian-Chinese alliance, these views are slightly different.

The Chinese want to change the unipolar American world to a unipolar Chinese one. Of course, the latter does not mean total dictatorship or imposing China’s ideology on other countries. Fortunately, the Chinese do not have a globally oriented value system like Soviet socialism or American liberalism. China will be satisfied with other countries not standing in its way and recognizing China’s peripheral regions — that is, the territories between the Caspian Sea and Indonesia — as subject to exclusive Chinese influence. As well as letting China exploit the world’s resources to stabilize its national economy. To put it simply, if the U.S. wants the return of its global dictatorship, then China is offering a light version of global authoritarianism.

Russia’s offer is democracy. Moscow sees a multipolar world in which countries exist without external influence in their internal affairs. A world where transnational economic and ideological competition will exist freely without the abuse of sanction mechanisms and humanitarian interventions. Where countries will integrate on regional levels. A world whose global governance will be carried out by a board of directors, comprised of the most important regional powers: Russia, China, Iran, India, Japan, Germany, France and other respected countries.

Russia’s democratic order is essentially beneficial for everyone. For East Asia, which does not want to participate in conflict with China or fall under Beijing’s rule. For the Middle East, which wants Western democratizers to leave them alone. For European countries, which will be rid of America’s crusade. For China, which is morally, ideologically and institutionally not ready to take America’s place. And finally for the United States, which will be forced to survive rejection of its status as a global empire, just like France and the United Kingdom have done before it. The U.S. will then finally become a normal regional leader.

But are the national elites of these countries ready to accept Russia’s democratic order?