Harsh Wind

Published in Mitteldeutsche Zeitung
(Germany) on 16 August 2011
by Steffen Höhne (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jessica DeVaul. Edited by Hoishan Chan  .
Both pessimistic and optimistic economists currently struggle over the interpretation of the economic situation. One group of economists sees that there is weak growth in the German economy during the second quarter, as opposed to the economy being at the end of an economic recovery period. The other economists refer to the standard order of books in the German industry and see at most just small setbacks in growth.

During the past few weeks, the drop in prices on the international stock exchanges has not led to a new economic crisis. However, certain individual exaggerations with regard to the stock market have found fine seismographs for measuring the coming economic developments so far. The high national debts of the industrial nations and the weak U.S. economic situation burden the world economy. The United States’ economy plunged in the recession — none of the other countries’ economies are excluded from this — and thus, it pulled the German economy downward with it. This is the way it has been up until now.

Therefore, the German companies were well-advised to get themselves ready for a stormy autumn. In Saxon-Anhalt, however, several industrial companies are presently working at full capacity. Therefore, even a harsh wind might not so quickly unbalance the situation.



Rauer Wind

Pessimistische und optimistische Ökonomen ringen derzeit um die Deutungshoheit. Die einen interpretieren das schwache Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft im zweiten Quartal bereits als Ende des Aufschwungs. Die anderen verweisen auf volle Auftragsbücher in der deutschen Industrie und sehen höchstens eine kleine Wachstumsdelle.

Die Kursstürze an den internationalen Börsen in der vergangenen Woche führen nicht in eine neue Wirtschaftskrise. Die Aktienmärkte waren aber - bei allen einzelnen Übertreibungen - bisher immer feine Seismographen für kommende wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen. Die hohen Staatsschulden der Industrienationen und die schwache US-Konjunktur belasten die Weltwirtschaft. Stürzt die US-Wirtschaft in die Rezession - dies ist nicht mehr auszuschließen - zieht sie die deutsche Wirtschaft mit nach unten. So war es bisher immer.

Die deutschen Unternehmen sind daher gut beraten, sich auf einen stürmischen Herbst einzustellen. In Sachsen-Anhalt arbeiten derzeit allerdings viele Industriebetriebe an ihrer Kapazitätsgrenze. Selbst ein rauer Wind dürfte sie daher nicht so schnell aus dem Gleichgewicht bringen.
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