Obama’s Middle East Strategy: Containment

Published in United Daily News
(Taiwan) on 13 January 2009
by Tien, Shi-Yi (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eli Chiu. Edited by Louis Standish.
Barack Obama’s Middle East policy is likely to change. Since this wave of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Obama has been silence because he has not yet assumed his post, and that it is not appropriate for him to meddle into the incumbent presidential affairs. Nevertheless, there are indications to show that the gravity of Obama’s Mideast policy is likely to shift from the Israeli-Palestinian issue, which has been haunting the U.S. for half a century, to the containment of the rise of Muslim radicalism.

In the past, the U.S. diplomatic thinking was that, if Israel and Palestine were to reach peace, there will be no excuses for the Arab world to reject Israel as a legitimate country. However, since the Palestinian militant group Hamas took control of Gaza, letting Gaza fall into the hands of anti-American sphere of influence of Iran and Syria, the U.S. conventional diplomatic thinking has been challenged. Iran and Syria also supported the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

What is worth pondering is that the support of Palestine by some Arab countries has undergone subtle changes. Fearing that Iran’s influence in the Middle East is on the rise and even becoming a nuclear power, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia took a slow response to Israel’s attack against Gaza, without exerting strong pressure and requesting Israel to cease fire. This indicates that there are cracks in the unity of the Arab world.

Even Iran and Syria are acting in a manner of self-restraint. Obama has made himself known that after taking office, the U.S. will resume diplomatic exchanges with the hostile countries, a statement which is seen as a gain, not a loss for Iran and Syria. Therefore, they are not willing to venture into the forefront of Israeli-Palestinian conflict in support of Hamas.

Therefore, diplomatic analysts said that U.S. policy needs a thorough change to discard the pursuit of peace for Israel and Palestine, an effort which has been wearing out the U.S. for the past decades, because no matter if governments of Israel and Palestine reach a peace pact or not, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Taliban, al-Qaeda and other militant groups will never step aside, and the U.S. will never have dealings with them through diplomatic channels.

Obama’s administration probably can start from economic and security aspects to improve the lives of the middle-class of the Arab world, so as to contain the growth of Muslim radicalism.


觀天下》歐巴馬中東策略… 防堵激進派

【聯合報╱國際中心/田思怡】 2009.01.13 04:13 am


歐巴馬的中東政策可能出現重大改變。自這波以巴衝突以來,歐巴馬一直保持沉默,表面上說他還沒上任,不便插手現任總統事務,但有跡象顯示,歐巴馬可能把中東政策的重心,從牽絆美國逾半世紀的以巴問題,轉移到阻止伊斯蘭激進主義崛起。

過去美國的外交思維是,以巴若能達成和平,阿拉伯世界就失去拒絕接受以色列為合法國家的藉口。但自從巴勒斯坦激進組織哈瑪斯控制加薩地區,讓加薩落入反美的伊朗和敘利亞勢力範圍後,美國的傳統外交思維受到挑戰。伊朗和敘利亞也支持黎巴嫩的激進組織真主黨。

更值得玩味的是,一些阿拉伯國家對巴勒斯坦的支持也出現微妙變化。埃及、約旦和沙烏地阿拉伯深恐伊朗勢力在中東坐大,甚至成為核武強權,因此這些國家對於以色列攻擊加薩反應遲緩,而且未對以色列施加強大壓力,要求其停止攻擊,顯示阿拉伯世界的團結出現裂痕。

連伊朗和敘利亞都十分自制。因為歐巴馬已表明,上任後將與敵對國家恢復外交往來,這對伊朗和敘利亞來說,只有得沒有失,因此他們也不願站到以巴衝突的最前線,力挺哈瑪斯。

因此,外交分析家說,美國政策有必要徹底改變,放棄追求過去幾十年來讓美國耗盡心力的以巴和平,因為不論以巴政府是否簽署和平計畫,哈瑪斯、真主黨、神學士和凱達等激進組織都不會鬆手,美國也無法透過外交途徑和這些組織打交道。

歐巴馬政府可能只能從經濟和安全方面著手,改善阿拉伯世界中產階級的生活,藉此防堵伊斯蘭激進主義的壯大。


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