US Mediation in Asia

Published in Wen Wei Po
(Hong Kong) on 20 January 2014
by Liu Silu (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Renee Loeffler. Edited by Sean Feely.
Last year, when Vice President Joe Biden visited Asia, Japan originally thought the U.S. was coming to try and gain support against China's new air defense zone. But this was not the case, as Biden just talked evasively in Asia before returning to the U.S. Issues between China and Japan and between South Korea and Japan were not brought up on this trip; on the contrary, Japan's Prime Minister, [Shinzo] Abe, had the gall to “close the door on talks.” With Japan rocking the boat in Asia, the U.S. is worried it will be forced from its beneficial “neutral” position. On numerous trips to Asia, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns has tried to ease tension between all parties involved.

Taking Advantage of the Situation to Temporarily Halt U.S.-Korean Military Drills

Burns first went to South Korea, China and then Japan, his journey being the exact opposite of Biden’s. Burns went to South Korea and got straight to the point, stating that resuming negotiations on the peninsula was a key issue. North Korea sent South Korea a “large proposal,” and while [both countries] hope to ease tension between the north and south, [the proposal] left no leeway in its demand that the south stop military drills and that the U.S. not be allowed to launch nuclear strikes or hold military drills in South Korea or nearby territories. The south promptly refused [this demand]. Actually, the U.S. and South Korea originally had not thought about the nuclear issue at all. On the contrary, it was Kim Jong Un who first brought up the renouncement of nuclear weapons. As such, the U.S. and South Korea should take this chance to force the north to put all its nuclear weapons on the table. On this upcoming trip, if Burns is to be sincere and act with wisdom, he should take advantage of the situation and be the first to suspend U.S.-South Korean military drills, to compel the north to again make the peninsula nuclear-free and resume six-party talks, weakening the north's military power.

Maintaining stable relations with Japan and neighboring countries, especially China, is also another main point of Burns’ visit. Japanese foreign relations are an extension of U.S. foreign relations in Asia. China and Japan being neither at war nor peace is beneficial to the U.S. China and Japan are in dispute over the Diaoyu Islands and China's new air defense zone. The economic recession has affected the United States’ influence in Asia, so it tacitly allows Japan to gain military strength using circumstances it can control to inhibit China. The U.S. wants the ability to continue to use military bases in Japan and maintain a presence in Asia, which appears justified when there is the possible escalation of conflict between China and Japan, wherein Japan would ask for reinforcements. This also affects China-U.S. relations, and would cause the U.S. to be put in a hard position, so Burns wants to ease mounting tensions between China and Japan.

History between Japan and South Korea has led to current disputes. And due to South Korea also being an U.S. ally, conflicts between South Korea and Japan also affect the three-country alliance, putting the U.S. in an awkward situation. If the two allies are at odds with each other but take no immediate action, when strategizing with the U.S. there is no reason to be worried. However, the U.S. is more worried about South Korea involving China by forming a three-country alliance with China and North Korea that would be able to stand against the U.S. and Japan, weakening U.S. influence. Therefore, the U.S. wants to ease tension between Japan and South Korea quickly so the three countries have enough allied power to curb China.

U.S. Worries over Strengthening Ties between China and South Korea

In 2013, trade between Japan and South Korea and between Japan and China declined on multiple levels, but between China and South Korea, trade has increased. The northeast Asian “main artery” of trade between China and Japan is undergoing a huge change. China and South Korea increased the scope of the two countries' free trade zone; Commerce Minister of China Gao Hucheng expressed that they will strive this year to finish negotiations regarding the zone. South Korea also expressed its intention to push for U.S. mediation in establishing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but this year the priority is pushing for free trade negotiations with China. From an economic standpoint, the U.S. worries Chinese-South Korean relations will strengthen through trade agreements.

No matter whether it is in northeast Asian conflicts, foreign relations or the economy, the U.S. is casting its shadow all over the place. Not only is the U.S. acting as the international police, but it is also looking out for its own interests in the area. After visiting Japan, the U.S. wants to pull South Korea into an alliance, settling disputes quietly to strengthen a three country alliance between the U.S., Japan and South Korea, reprising its role as the core power in the Asia-Pacific. It also wants to maintain monitored development and control over Chinese foreign relations, and use China in the region to play a role of responsibility, which is a balanced U.S. strategy. However, Beijing can also play this same game and change the strategy for its own interests.


東張西望:美國斡旋亞太實為重返亞太

劉斯路 資深評論員

拜登去年末訪問亞洲,日本原以為美國是來討伐中國劃設東海防空識別區,為日本撐腰的,但此願未遂,拜登含糊其辭在亞洲轉了一圈就回去了。中日、韓日關係當然沒有因為拜登之行有所起色,反而安倍斗膽拜鬼,「關閉了對話的大門」。日本鬧得亞太地區雞飛狗跳,美國怕自己的「再平衡」利益雞飛蛋打,因此有副國務卿伯恩斯再次亞洲行,緩和各方關係。

應順水推舟先暫停美韓軍演

伯恩斯先訪韓國然後中國最後日本,和拜登的行程安排剛好相反。伯恩斯直奔韓國,主題鮮明,半島局勢協調就是訪問重點之一。朝鮮向韓國發出「重大提案」,表面上欲求緩和朝韓關係,以退為進要求韓國停止軍演,及提議韓國不要允許美國向韓國和周邊地區進行核打擊手段,但是遭到韓國方面明確拒絕。其實,美國和韓國原來並沒有進行核打擊的念頭,反倒是金正恩先提出棄核話題,美韓應該抓住這個機會,倒逼朝鮮重上棄核談判桌。伯恩斯此行若有誠意,應有大智慧,順水推舟先暫停美韓軍演,逼朝鮮再上實現半島無核化的談判桌,倒將他一軍。

另外,相信穩住日本與鄰國關係,尤其與中國關係,是伯恩斯此行一大重點。日本外交,實質也是美國在亞太外交的延伸。中日不戰不和,最符合美國利益。中國和日本正為釣魚島領土紛爭和東海防空識別區激化對抗。美國受經濟不景氣的影響,在東北亞地區的話語權已是減弱,所以也默許日本增強軍力,在可控的條件下制衡中國。若然中日擦槍走火,日本要求美國增援,將影響美國繼續利用日本作為亞太地區的軍事中心,以及中美大國關係也會受到打擊,這都令美國陷入兩難,所以伯恩斯要為中日不斷升溫的緊張局勢澆些冷水。

日本和韓國也因為歷史問題而產生尖銳矛盾,由於韓國也是美國盟友,韓日矛盾將影響美日韓三角同盟,讓美國甚是尷尬。若兩個鐵桿盟友間打架不要緊,只要都心向美國也不必擔心,但美國最怕的是韓國被中國拉攏,朝韓和中國成為一個利益集團,對抗美日,美國更顯勢單力薄。所以美國必須盡早調和日韓關係,整固三足力量集中鉗制中國。

美國擔心中韓關係拉近

美國看到了2013年日本與中韓兩國的貿易額都有不同程度地縮減,但中韓貿易額則呈現出逐年擴大的趨勢。中日貿易作為「東亞大動脈」的結構發生了巨大轉變。況且,中韓兩國都把中韓自貿區提上了日程,中國商務部部長高虎城表示會力爭在2014年完成談判。而韓國方面亦表示有意加入美國牽頭推動建立的TPP,但今年將優先考慮推進與中國的雙邊自由貿易談判。從經濟對國家關係的實質影響來看,美國擔心中韓關係拉近亦不為過。

無論中東地區以巴衝突還是東北亞中日韓關係,都有美國四處斡旋緩和氣氛的身影,美國是國際警察,但維護秩序的目的是自身利益不受侵害。美國來為日本善後,既要拉攏韓國鞏固利益集團,也要促進氣氛和解,強化美日韓三國同盟,成為實現重返亞太的核心力量。另一方面,適當發展和中國關係,控制中國,使中國在地區扮演負責任的角色,也是美國亞太再平衡戰略的內容。相信,北京也會將計就計,適度調整策略,謀求中國的最大利益。
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