A US Able To Withdraw at Any Moment Spells a New Reality for a Volatile Asia-Pacific
U.S. President Donald Trump has suddenly and drastically scaled back U.S.-South Korea military exercises in retaliation for South Korea’s refusal to assist the United States in the U.S.-Iran conflict. He has also demanded an exorbitant price for protecting South Korea and imposed a punitive 25% tariff on South Korean automobiles and other products. Beyond deepening skepticism toward the United States, these moves have prompted countries across the Asia-Pacific to watch closely for whether the U.S. will continue to distance itself from traditional allies, and to weigh the potential consequences.
Since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, the U.S. has repeatedly redeployed Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile systems stationed in South Korea to the Middle East. The USS George Washington, originally based in Japan, was also recently sent to the Middle East to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, leaving a gap in the U.S. carrier presence in the Asia-Pacific. From redeploying missile systems and withdrawing an aircraft carrier to scaling back military exercises, these moves send several clear messages: first, that defying Trump carries a price; second, that if Washington walks away, its allies must fend for themselves; and third, that the U.S. genuinely lacks the capacity to fight wars in both the East and the West.
The reactions from Japan and South Korea — both key U.S. allies — have been markedly different. Even while Trump has antagonized South Korea, its president, Lee Jae Myung, has said he fully supports South Korea's taking responsibility for the security of the Korean Peninsula. He further expressed respect for Trump’s scaling back of U.S.-South Korea military exercises and the creation of opportunities for dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea. Even though North Korea has derided South Korea as a puppet that can only go where its strings take it, Lee seems more intent on seizing the moment to advance his strategic objectives of defense autonomy and “a peace regime where there is no need to fight.” But in South Korean public opinion, both mutual trust between the U.S. and South Korea and the U.S. security commitment have been dealt a serious blow.
The Japanese government under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has responded decisively to Trump’s demand that allies take on more responsibility for their own defense, from increasing the defense budget and promoting arms exports to conducting joint patrols with countries such as the U.S., the Philippines and Australia, and strengthening multilateral cooperation on Indo-Pacific security — all measures with an eye on mainland China. But at a time when North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and strengthening cooperation with Russia, Trump’s scaling back of U.S.-South Korea military exercises has clearly unsettled Japan and raised concerns about sending the wrong signal to North Korea and China. Faced with a complex security environment, Japan has nonetheless stressed the paramount importance of U.S.-Japan-South Korea cooperation.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s administration is most keen on making use of its location within the first island chain to embed itself within the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategic framework. Amid the U.S.-China rivalry and geopolitical tensions, on the subject of a potential “Taiwan contingency,” Japan’s Takaichi has softened her rhetoric from explicit statements to a “can do but cannot say” stance, while South Korea’s Lee has said bluntly, “I’ll think about that when aliens try to invade Earth.” As for the nations of Southeast Asia, each has its own practical considerations.
To counter the threat from the Chinese Communist Party, Taiwan is hoping to link up with the U.S., Japan and the Philippines, thus creating a north-south line of defense. Accordingly, the Lai government is even willing to sacrifice sovereignty, endorsing Japan’s and the Philippines’ negotiations over the delimitation of their respective exclusive economic zones in the waters east of Taiwan, and condemning mainland China over the collision between Philippine and Chinese vessels in the South China Sea. However, while the U.S. has also warned mainland China that an attack on a Philippine vessel in the South China Sea would trigger the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has said that, with regard to a “Taiwan contingency,” the Philippines has no intention of becoming a belligerent in the region and would not allow the U.S. to launch attacks from Philippine bases or territory.
Indonesia pursues a foreign policy of independence, self-reliance and active nonalignment. No sooner had U.S. Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby wrapped up his visit to Indonesia than Indonesia’s foreign and defense ministers held a “2+2” meeting with their Chinese counterparts. While Colby was still in Jakarta, an Indonesian warship transited the waters east of Taiwan and conducted a passing exercise [a brief maneuver carried out when vessels meet at sea] with a Chinese warship. Indonesia stressed that this was based on “naval diplomacy tradition” and not combative in nature. The Indonesian warship had conducted joint exercises with the Russian, Japanese, Chinese and U.S. navies along the way. Yet upon passing Taiwan, it exchanged greetings with a Chinese warship, effectively echoing the Chinese military’s political and military maneuvering in Taiwan’s eastern waters.
Most embarrassing for Taiwan has been the situation surrounding Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. In an interview with Al Jazeera, he actually expressed support for China’s use of force in pursuing reunification with Taiwan, prompting both a strongly worded protest from Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and criticism from within Malaysia. Anwar later changed his tune, clarifying that a peaceful resolution was the best course of action. But the controversy over his remarks reflects the reality that some Southeast Asian countries are gradually aligning themselves with Beijing’s narrative amid the U.S.-China power struggle.
The U.S. insists that it will not withdraw from Asia, but countries across the region remain concerned that it may walk away. If it can abruptly scale back U.S.-South Korea military exercises today, it could just as easily withdraw from regional conflicts at any time tomorrow. The countries of the Asia-Pacific all have their own practical considerations and coping strategies. Taiwan relies on U.S. backing, prioritizing preparedness for war over the avoidance of war. But if a “contingency” were to arise, would Taiwan truly be able to trust that the U.S. would stand with it?
Since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, the U.S. has repeatedly redeployed Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile systems stationed in South Korea to the Middle East. The USS George Washington, originally based in Japan, was also recently sent to the Middle East to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, leaving a gap in the U.S. carrier presence in the Asia-Pacific. From redeploying missile systems and withdrawing an aircraft carrier to scaling back military exercises, these moves send several clear messages: first, that defying Trump carries a price; second, that if Washington walks away, its allies must fend for themselves; and third, that the U.S. genuinely lacks the capacity to fight wars in both the East and the West.
The reactions from Japan and South Korea — both key U.S. allies — have been markedly different. Even while Trump has antagonized South Korea, its president, Lee Jae Myung, has said he fully supports South Korea's taking responsibility for the security of the Korean Peninsula. He further expressed respect for Trump’s scaling back of U.S.-South Korea military exercises and the creation of opportunities for dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea. Even though North Korea has derided South Korea as a puppet that can only go where its strings take it, Lee seems more intent on seizing the moment to advance his strategic objectives of defense autonomy and “a peace regime where there is no need to fight.” But in South Korean public opinion, both mutual trust between the U.S. and South Korea and the U.S. security commitment have been dealt a serious blow.
The Japanese government under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has responded decisively to Trump’s demand that allies take on more responsibility for their own defense, from increasing the defense budget and promoting arms exports to conducting joint patrols with countries such as the U.S., the Philippines and Australia, and strengthening multilateral cooperation on Indo-Pacific security — all measures with an eye on mainland China. But at a time when North Korea is developing nuclear weapons and strengthening cooperation with Russia, Trump’s scaling back of U.S.-South Korea military exercises has clearly unsettled Japan and raised concerns about sending the wrong signal to North Korea and China. Faced with a complex security environment, Japan has nonetheless stressed the paramount importance of U.S.-Japan-South Korea cooperation.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s administration is most keen on making use of its location within the first island chain to embed itself within the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategic framework. Amid the U.S.-China rivalry and geopolitical tensions, on the subject of a potential “Taiwan contingency,” Japan’s Takaichi has softened her rhetoric from explicit statements to a “can do but cannot say” stance, while South Korea’s Lee has said bluntly, “I’ll think about that when aliens try to invade Earth.” As for the nations of Southeast Asia, each has its own practical considerations.
To counter the threat from the Chinese Communist Party, Taiwan is hoping to link up with the U.S., Japan and the Philippines, thus creating a north-south line of defense. Accordingly, the Lai government is even willing to sacrifice sovereignty, endorsing Japan’s and the Philippines’ negotiations over the delimitation of their respective exclusive economic zones in the waters east of Taiwan, and condemning mainland China over the collision between Philippine and Chinese vessels in the South China Sea. However, while the U.S. has also warned mainland China that an attack on a Philippine vessel in the South China Sea would trigger the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has said that, with regard to a “Taiwan contingency,” the Philippines has no intention of becoming a belligerent in the region and would not allow the U.S. to launch attacks from Philippine bases or territory.
Indonesia pursues a foreign policy of independence, self-reliance and active nonalignment. No sooner had U.S. Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby wrapped up his visit to Indonesia than Indonesia’s foreign and defense ministers held a “2+2” meeting with their Chinese counterparts. While Colby was still in Jakarta, an Indonesian warship transited the waters east of Taiwan and conducted a passing exercise [a brief maneuver carried out when vessels meet at sea] with a Chinese warship. Indonesia stressed that this was based on “naval diplomacy tradition” and not combative in nature. The Indonesian warship had conducted joint exercises with the Russian, Japanese, Chinese and U.S. navies along the way. Yet upon passing Taiwan, it exchanged greetings with a Chinese warship, effectively echoing the Chinese military’s political and military maneuvering in Taiwan’s eastern waters.
Most embarrassing for Taiwan has been the situation surrounding Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. In an interview with Al Jazeera, he actually expressed support for China’s use of force in pursuing reunification with Taiwan, prompting both a strongly worded protest from Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and criticism from within Malaysia. Anwar later changed his tune, clarifying that a peaceful resolution was the best course of action. But the controversy over his remarks reflects the reality that some Southeast Asian countries are gradually aligning themselves with Beijing’s narrative amid the U.S.-China power struggle.
The U.S. insists that it will not withdraw from Asia, but countries across the region remain concerned that it may walk away. If it can abruptly scale back U.S.-South Korea military exercises today, it could just as easily withdraw from regional conflicts at any time tomorrow. The countries of the Asia-Pacific all have their own practical considerations and coping strategies. Taiwan relies on U.S. backing, prioritizing preparedness for war over the avoidance of war. But if a “contingency” were to arise, would Taiwan truly be able to trust that the U.S. would stand with it?
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