The Truth and Fiction Behind Obama's Campaign Promises

Published in JInghua
(China) on 23 January 2013
by Er Xiao (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chase Coulson. Edited by Heather Martin  .
Lies and truths combined, it's the standard of rhetoric. But in practical dealings, you just can't blur the line between truth and fiction. Herein lies the true test of Obama's second term, which will also determine his place in history.

Obama's inaugural address that followed his Jan. 21 oath of office was meant to reaffirm America's national spirit and send out a call for unity. On the domestic affairs front, Obama emphasized that there will be new ideas and new technologies used to remake the government and revamp the tax code and schools, that through equitable means the cost of health care will be driven down and that the federal deficit will be reduced to bring about economic equality. He promised to bring support to the middle class and strengthen Social Security and, on the foreign affairs front, to consolidate U.S. alliances around the world, while simultaneously doing his utmost to resolve differences with other countries peacefully.

On paper, Obama's second term inaugural address was highly inspirational, which is standard convention for a second term president’s speech: rich in conjecture, poor in facts, a stronger emphasis on impassioned oration than on the actual declaration of policy. After all, the primary task of a U.S. president's second term is finishing what he started in the first. But Obama's speech was not completely hollow; among his description of new ideas, he did disclose something “real.”

Faced with a still-stagnant economy, the prime challenge of this new term, Obama reasoned that there are new technologies needed to spur economic recovery. As the president who assumed office amid the financial crisis, Obama's first term was spent as a member of the “fire brigade.” As it stands now, the U.S. economy has moved into the slow recovery phase, which has been shaped largely by returns from the quantitative easing monetary policy, seigniorage privileges and manufacturing. However, this has also created new risks, like the fiscal cliff. Forced to reduce the deficit and government spending power simultaneously, will it be possible to keep up the pace of economic recovery? This is the trial that Obama is currently facing. On account of federal government statutes, the debt ceiling is about to expire, so the trial has become ever more severe.

In order to avoid the fiscal cliff, everything hinges on congressional bipartisan cooperation, but even with finding a solution to the debt ceiling situation, Obama will ultimately still be faced with a great many unknowns. Even if Congress does come to a unanimous decision, this does not mean the U.S. economy will turn around — using high debts as a means of economic stimulation is not possible to do forever. Perhaps it was based on this consideration that Obama waved the banner of new technology, yet made no mention of “cooperation” with the Republicans, which set off a wave of scorching criticism from the Republican camp. It also signifies that the interplay between the two parties is an important factor that will directly affect U.S. economic and market performance.

What the outside world is following even more closely is the new wording that Obama used to explain foreign affairs: “We will … try and resolve our differences with other nations peacefully.” On the surface, the wording here seemed to continue along with the unilateral logic employed at the conclusion of his first term — namely, withdrawing the troops from the Middle East. In the rapidly changing landscape of last year’s Middle East conflict, there the U.S. was, hovering in the background, which was seemingly a demonstration of this same logic. But one simply can’t ignore the fact that, in the high-profile return to Asia, the U.S. has not exactly been the embodiment of the, “peaceful resolution of differences” that it wishes to be. In the game of East China Sea power, it seems that, behind the standpoint of “fuzzy neutrality,” the U.S. is hardly even trying to cover up the fact that it’s leaning to one side. It goes without saying that this not only presents absolutely no benefit to carrying out dialogues in the area, but also, with joint military exercises constantly being performed in the area, actually exacerbates instability in the region.

Besides that, East Asia is an important market for the U.S., and it is also a key location in which to bring about the U.S.’ economic recovery. If in the peaceful resolution of differences there is a split favoring one region or the other, or if the U.S. says one thing and does another, or if there is some sort of double standard at play here, then it will not be beneficial to stability in the region and could quite possibly cause the U.S. itself to become trapped inside.

Truth and lies blended together — this is the stuff of rhetoric. But in practical application, one simply cannot blur the line between truth and fiction. This will prove to be the true test of Obama’s second term and will also determine his legacy and his ultimate place in history.



奥巴马誓言的虚与实

虚实结合,是标准的演讲模式,但在实际行动中,不能虚实混淆。这是奥巴马第二任期的主要考验,也将决定其最终的历史地位。

本报特约评论员迩晓

美国连任总统奥巴马21日宣誓就职,随后发表就职演讲,重申美国建国精神,呼吁民众团结。在内政事务上,奥巴马强调,将用新观点与新技术改革政府、税制和教育,通过平衡方式降低医疗成本、削减联邦赤字,以实现经济公平、扶助中产阶级和加强社会保障;在对外事务上,奥巴马承诺,将确保美国在世界上的联盟巩固, 同时尽力通过和平方式解决与其他国家的争端。

奥巴马的第二次就职演讲,在文本意义上,还是颇富感染力的。这也是美国总统第二任期的 惯例:虚多于实。精神宣讲,比政策宣示更重要。毕竟,第二任期的主要任务是完成第一任期的未竟之业。但是,奥巴马的此番演讲,并非全然为虚,在其较有新意 的描述当中,也透露了一些“实”的信息。

面对经济这个第二任期的主要挑战,奥巴马透露出通过新技术带动经济复苏的思路。作为金融危 机当中上台的总统,奥巴马的第一任期主要扮演的是“救火队员”的角色。现在,美国经济已步入缓慢复苏阶段,这一局面的形成,主要靠量化宽松的货币政策、美 元的全球铸币税特权以及制造业的回流。但是,这也带来了财政悬崖等新风险。能否在被迫实施减赤、降低政府购买力的同时,保住经济复苏的节奏,是奥巴马当前 的最大考验,这一考验因联邦政府法定债务上限即将到期正变得越来越严峻。

依靠国会两大党的博弈与合作,最后解决债务上限问题,避免财政悬崖,还面临许多未知数。即使最终国会达成一致过关,也不意味着美国经济的彻底好转——高负债刺激经济的方法不可能无限期使用。或许正是基于这一考虑,奥巴马祭出了新技术的大旗,而只字未提与共和党的合作,这也引发了共和党阵营的强烈批评。这预示着,政党博弈,在未来一段时间仍将成为影响美国经济和市场表现的重要因素。

外界更关注的,是奥巴马在外事问题上的新说法,即“尽力通过和平方式解决与其他国家的争端”。 表面看,这一说法延续了其第一任期结束单边主义,从中东撤军时的逻辑。美国去年在中东剧变、巴以军事冲突中都甘居幕后,似乎也是这种逻辑的演示。但不能忽视,在高调重返的东亚区域,美国并没有体现出以和平方式解决争端的意愿。在东亚海权的博弈中,美国貌似“模糊中立”的立场背后,是几乎不加掩饰的倾斜立场。这不仅不利于这一区域展开对话,还通过不断的联合军演强化着地区的不稳定。

东亚地区既是美国的重要市场,也是美国经济复苏的关键所在。如果以和平方式解决争端的说法是分地区而为,或者是嘴上一套行动一套,或者实行双重标准,那么不仅不利于地区稳定,而且很可能让美国深陷其中。

虚实结合,是标准的演讲模式,但在实际行动中,不能虚实混淆。这是奥巴马第二任期的主要考验,也将决定其最终的历史地位。
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