Iran War: Stalemate Instead of Progress
Published in Frankfurter Rundschau
(Germany) on 23 June 2026
by Andreas Schwarzkopf (link to
original)
A bleak outlook for U.S.-Iran talks
Negotiations between America and Iran are not progressing. Each side contradicts the other’s announcement of any progress. This is reminiscent of the course of talks between the conflicting parties before the ceasefire was agreed upon with much fanfare. However, it appears to have been only a brief respite. The hoped-for peace has become a distant prospect once more, as has the prospect of easing tensions for the global economy, because the previously guaranteed free passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is now in question.
You could almost pity U.S. negotiator and Vice President JD Vance who, on behalf of his boss, is supposed to find a way out of the war that Vance was against from the very beginning. If he fails, it will not only be bad for the region but also for his ambitions of becoming the next U.S. president after Donald Trump. If Vance succeeds in bagging the deal, Trump will reap the rewards.
Two seemingly insurmountable hurdles stand in Washington's way. One is the mullah regime, which negotiates without making any concessions, and the other is Benjamin Netanyahu's Israeli government, which neither abides by the agreed-upon ceasefire in Lebanon nor intends to withdraw its army from the neighboring country. The Trump administration is unable to get both sides to back down, since both sides profit from the status quo.
That could lead to the original 60-day negotiation period being extended. This would be a face-saving solution for Trump, the mullahs and Netanyahu. Otherwise, no one would benefit from it — neither the people in Iran, Lebanon nor Gaza. Not to mention Iran's neighbors, the Gulf states.
Negotiations between America and Iran are not progressing. Each side contradicts the other’s announcement of any progress. This is reminiscent of the course of talks between the conflicting parties before the ceasefire was agreed upon with much fanfare. However, it appears to have been only a brief respite. The hoped-for peace has become a distant prospect once more, as has the prospect of easing tensions for the global economy, because the previously guaranteed free passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is now in question.
You could almost pity U.S. negotiator and Vice President JD Vance who, on behalf of his boss, is supposed to find a way out of the war that Vance was against from the very beginning. If he fails, it will not only be bad for the region but also for his ambitions of becoming the next U.S. president after Donald Trump. If Vance succeeds in bagging the deal, Trump will reap the rewards.
Two seemingly insurmountable hurdles stand in Washington's way. One is the mullah regime, which negotiates without making any concessions, and the other is Benjamin Netanyahu's Israeli government, which neither abides by the agreed-upon ceasefire in Lebanon nor intends to withdraw its army from the neighboring country. The Trump administration is unable to get both sides to back down, since both sides profit from the status quo.
That could lead to the original 60-day negotiation period being extended. This would be a face-saving solution for Trump, the mullahs and Netanyahu. Otherwise, no one would benefit from it — neither the people in Iran, Lebanon nor Gaza. Not to mention Iran's neighbors, the Gulf states.
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