Defense White Paper on US-China Conflict: Deterrence and Dialogue Are the 2 Keys

Published in Mainichi Shimbun
(Japan) on 16 July 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by T Kagata. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
The U.S. and China are becoming increasingly confrontational in a variety of areas, such as politics, economy and security. Japan’s defense policy is being questioned as it stands between them.

The 2021 edition of the defense white paper features a new section analyzing U.S.-China relations.

It cautions that if the struggle for supremacy between the U.S. and China intensifies and the balance of military power changes, “it may possibly affect the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific region.”

What is noteworthy is that the situation surrounding Taiwan was clearly stated for the first time as “important for Japan's security and the stability of the international community.”

This was based on the fact that the military balance between China and Taiwan is tilted in favor of China, which is increasing its military power, and that the situation is becoming increasingly tense as China is stepping up its military activities in the vicinity of Taiwan. The leaders of Japan and the U.S. also referred to the Taiwan Strait in their joint statement in April for the first time in 52 years.

China has significantly increased its defense spending without any transparency. It continues to engage in intimidating activities in the East China Sea and South China Sea, including the area around the Senkaku Islands, and has become a source of instability in the region.

However, it is not enough to speak loudly about the threat and strengthen deterrence. If the confrontation between the U.S. and China becomes more acute and Japan is put on the front line, its security will be threatened.

Even if there is tension and conflict, it is necessary to create a mechanism to control them and avoid clashes. To that end, it is essential to deepen mutual understanding and build trust through dialogue and exchange at various levels.

Three years ago, Japan and China introduced rules to avoid accidents by communicating at field level when ships and aircraft from both countries approach each other. It is a crisis management system designed to avoid accidental collisions. We hope to establish it through steady operation.

To avoid misunderstanding each other’s intentions, we must hasten to establish a hotline where defense authorities can communicate with each other at any time. There should also be additional channels for dialogue among senior officials.

The stability of Japan-China relations is extremely important not only for the two countries, but also for the region and the international community.

While maintaining deterrence based on the Japan-U.S. alliance, Japan needs to continue dialogue with China to ease tensions. It also needs to formulate a proactive strategy and promote a multilayered approach.


米中対立下の防衛白書 抑止と対話が戦略の両輪

毎日新聞 2021/7/16 東京朝刊 835文字

 米国と中国が、政治や経済、安全保障などさまざまな分野で対立を深めている。そのはざまに立つ日本の防衛政策が問われている。
 2021年版の防衛白書は、米中関係を分析する項目を新たに設けたのが特徴だ。
 米中両国の覇権争いが激化し、軍事的なパワーバランスが変われば「インド太平洋地域の平和と安定に影響を与えうる」と警戒感を示した。
 注目されるのは、台湾をめぐる情勢について「日本の安全保障や国際社会の安定に重要」と初めて明記したことだ。
 中台の軍事バランスが軍事力を増強する中国側に傾いているのに加え、中国が台湾周辺での軍事活動を活発化させているため情勢が緊迫化していることを踏まえた。日米首脳も4月の共同声明で、52年ぶりに台湾海峡に言及した。
 中国は、透明性を欠いたまま国防費を大幅に増やしている。尖閣諸島周辺を含む東シナ海や南シナ海で威圧的な活動を続け、地域の不安定要因になっている。
 だが、脅威を声高に語り、抑止力を強化するだけでは不十分だ。米中対立が先鋭化し、日本がその最前線に立たされるようなことになれば、安全が脅かされる。
 緊張や対立があっても、それを制御し、紛争や衝突を回避する仕組みを作る必要がある。そのためには、さまざまなレベルでの対話や交流を通じて相互理解を深め、信頼を醸成することが不可欠だ。
 日中間では3年前に、両国の艦船や航空機が接近した際、現場レベルで連絡を取り合って事故を回避するためのルールが導入された。偶発的な衝突を避けるための危機管理システムだ。着実な運用で定着させたい。
 互いの意図を読み違えることがないよう、防衛当局間でいつでもやりとりができるホットラインの開設を急がねばならない。幹部同士の対話のチャンネルも増やすべきだ。
 日中関係の安定は、両国だけでなく、地域と国際社会にとっても極めて重要だ。
 日米同盟を基軸に抑止力を維持しつつ、中国との対話を続けて緊張を緩和する。日本は主体的に戦略を立て、重層的な取り組みを進める必要がある。
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