Wiping Out the ‘Red Wave’*
Published in Kommersant
(Russia) on 11 November 2022
by Pavel Dubravsky (link to original)
(Russia) on 11 November 2022
by Pavel Dubravsky (link to original)
Translated from
by Nikita Gubankov.
Edited by Wes Vanderburgh.
*Editor’s Note: On March 4, Russia enacted a law that criminalizes public opposition to, or independent news reporting about, the war in Ukraine. The law makes it a crime to call the war a “war” rather than a “special military operation” on social media or in a news article or broadcast. The law is understood to penalize any language that “discredits” Russia’s use of its military in Ukraine, calls for sanctions or protests Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It punishes anyone found to spread “false information” about the invasion with up to 15 years in prison.
Political strategist Pavel Dubravsky discusses the results of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections.
Experts and opinion polls alike were predicting that the Republican Party would win the midterm elections. This phenomenon gave rise to the expression “red wave,” analogizing to the Democrats' 2018 "blue wave," and a successful Republican campaign to regain control of Congress. But there was no red wave. Instead, while Republicans are projected to take control of the House of Representatives, fate of the Senate is still in limbo. At the moment, neither party has a majority in the Senate, and the outcome of the midterms will be decided in Georgia, where a runoff is set for Dec. 6.
Given the situation, media predictions that the Republicans would win now seem like a conspiracy by the media to discredit the party. Of course, the Republicans have won more seats than predicted, even though they risk losing their hopes for a grip on the Senate majority after the runoff in Georgia. Still, everyone expected a complete triumph. Instead, the Republicans are claiming moderate gains, and the public is looking at is as either a borderline victory or a defeat. The Republicans may have increased their share of seats in the House, and they may even hold a majority and frustrate President Joe Biden for the next two years. But in the eyes of Americans, they look like losers.
The fact that the fate of the Senate will be decided in one state adds to the urgency of the situation.
Right now, both parties have 48 seats each in the Senate, and the Republicans need 51 seats to achieve a majority. The vote count is still ongoing in Nevada, Arizona and Alaska. In Alaska, a Republican wins either way. According to the latest results, Democrats will win in Arizona, and Republicans will win in Nevada, resulting in a 50-49 vote split in the latter's favor.**
Hence, Georgia will decide the Senate's fate and determine whether there will be a "red" Congress under a "blue" president. There, both candidates received less than 50% of the vote and are heading to a runoff, where the winner will ensure a majority in the Senate for their party.
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is running against Herschel Walker, a former football player who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Sen. Warnock faces an uphill struggle — 35,000 votes separated him and Walker on Tuesday, Nov. 8. Some 2% cast their vote for a third candidate from the Libertarian Party, and these votes could be decisive in the Dec. 6 runoff.
In Georgia, both candidates have frequently appealed to God and the Bible, which is not surprising since Warnock was a pastor at the same church as Martin Luther King, Jr. Nevertheless, the election was controversial. , Walker was accused of pressuring two women he dated into having abortions. He was also accused of having children out of wedlock. Hence, given Walker's anti-abortion views, the scandal was damaging to his reputation. In both cases, the women chose to remain anonymous, but provided proof in the way of a $700 check from Walker, who admitted to having written the check but denied knowledge of how it was spent and refuted the allegations.
Sen. Warnock will face the second runoff of his career, which is a rarity in the U.S. since only two states — Louisiana and Georgia — allow for such runoffs. Warnock won the last Senate runoff in Georgia and thus the big question is whether he can win again.
It is also worth noting that the midterms produced several new stars, including 25-year-old Generation Z member Maxwell Alejandro Frost. The Democrat became the youngest person elected to Congress, having been endorsed by political heavyweights like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Wes Moore was elected as Maryland's first black governor. Sarah Sanders became the first female Arkansas governor, and Becca Balint became the first-ever woman to represent Vermont.
Moreover, even though the "red wave" did not happen, in its place came the "rainbow wave" — more than 400 openly gay candidates won the elections in the U.S. That's roughly 58% of the total number of LGBT candidates who ran in the midterms. For example, Democratic attorney general Maura Healey became Massachusetts's first openly lesbian governor. She was followed by Tina Kotek, who, after a tight race in Oregon, will now become the state's governor.
In addition to asking about the preferred candidates, some of the ballots posed other questions — about legalizing marijuana, eliminating slavery-related language from state constitutions and guaranteeing abortion rights. Removal of slavery-related language from state constitutions was voted for in four of the five states where the question was on the ballot, with Louisiana leaving it in. Marijuana was legalized in two of five states — Missouri and Maryland. Meanwhile, three states — Vermont, Michigan and California — voted to enshrine abortion rights in their respective constitutions. In two other states — Kentucky and Montana — anti-abortion initiatives were rejected by most voters. Thus, supporters of abortion rights won in all five states where reproductive rights were on the ballot.
Overall, on the campaign trail, Republican successes are still evident. They retained the governorship in crucial states. They will probably take control of the House of Representatives. Theoretically, they could still get a majority in the Senate. But the Republicans' projected major success did not happen. More so, ideologically, the Republicans lost on a national scale by failing to promote their values and connect with voters.
**Editor's Note: The results of the midterm elections were not final when this article was published. The Republican Party has since won a majority in the House of Representatives, and the Democratic Party has maintained a majority in the Senate. Democratic candidate Catherine Cortez Masto won the Senate race in Nevada.
Political strategist Pavel Dubravsky discusses the results of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections.
Experts and opinion polls alike were predicting that the Republican Party would win the midterm elections. This phenomenon gave rise to the expression “red wave,” analogizing to the Democrats' 2018 "blue wave," and a successful Republican campaign to regain control of Congress. But there was no red wave. Instead, while Republicans are projected to take control of the House of Representatives, fate of the Senate is still in limbo. At the moment, neither party has a majority in the Senate, and the outcome of the midterms will be decided in Georgia, where a runoff is set for Dec. 6.
Given the situation, media predictions that the Republicans would win now seem like a conspiracy by the media to discredit the party. Of course, the Republicans have won more seats than predicted, even though they risk losing their hopes for a grip on the Senate majority after the runoff in Georgia. Still, everyone expected a complete triumph. Instead, the Republicans are claiming moderate gains, and the public is looking at is as either a borderline victory or a defeat. The Republicans may have increased their share of seats in the House, and they may even hold a majority and frustrate President Joe Biden for the next two years. But in the eyes of Americans, they look like losers.
The fact that the fate of the Senate will be decided in one state adds to the urgency of the situation.
Right now, both parties have 48 seats each in the Senate, and the Republicans need 51 seats to achieve a majority. The vote count is still ongoing in Nevada, Arizona and Alaska. In Alaska, a Republican wins either way. According to the latest results, Democrats will win in Arizona, and Republicans will win in Nevada, resulting in a 50-49 vote split in the latter's favor.**
Hence, Georgia will decide the Senate's fate and determine whether there will be a "red" Congress under a "blue" president. There, both candidates received less than 50% of the vote and are heading to a runoff, where the winner will ensure a majority in the Senate for their party.
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is running against Herschel Walker, a former football player who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Sen. Warnock faces an uphill struggle — 35,000 votes separated him and Walker on Tuesday, Nov. 8. Some 2% cast their vote for a third candidate from the Libertarian Party, and these votes could be decisive in the Dec. 6 runoff.
In Georgia, both candidates have frequently appealed to God and the Bible, which is not surprising since Warnock was a pastor at the same church as Martin Luther King, Jr. Nevertheless, the election was controversial. , Walker was accused of pressuring two women he dated into having abortions. He was also accused of having children out of wedlock. Hence, given Walker's anti-abortion views, the scandal was damaging to his reputation. In both cases, the women chose to remain anonymous, but provided proof in the way of a $700 check from Walker, who admitted to having written the check but denied knowledge of how it was spent and refuted the allegations.
Sen. Warnock will face the second runoff of his career, which is a rarity in the U.S. since only two states — Louisiana and Georgia — allow for such runoffs. Warnock won the last Senate runoff in Georgia and thus the big question is whether he can win again.
It is also worth noting that the midterms produced several new stars, including 25-year-old Generation Z member Maxwell Alejandro Frost. The Democrat became the youngest person elected to Congress, having been endorsed by political heavyweights like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Wes Moore was elected as Maryland's first black governor. Sarah Sanders became the first female Arkansas governor, and Becca Balint became the first-ever woman to represent Vermont.
Moreover, even though the "red wave" did not happen, in its place came the "rainbow wave" — more than 400 openly gay candidates won the elections in the U.S. That's roughly 58% of the total number of LGBT candidates who ran in the midterms. For example, Democratic attorney general Maura Healey became Massachusetts's first openly lesbian governor. She was followed by Tina Kotek, who, after a tight race in Oregon, will now become the state's governor.
In addition to asking about the preferred candidates, some of the ballots posed other questions — about legalizing marijuana, eliminating slavery-related language from state constitutions and guaranteeing abortion rights. Removal of slavery-related language from state constitutions was voted for in four of the five states where the question was on the ballot, with Louisiana leaving it in. Marijuana was legalized in two of five states — Missouri and Maryland. Meanwhile, three states — Vermont, Michigan and California — voted to enshrine abortion rights in their respective constitutions. In two other states — Kentucky and Montana — anti-abortion initiatives were rejected by most voters. Thus, supporters of abortion rights won in all five states where reproductive rights were on the ballot.
Overall, on the campaign trail, Republican successes are still evident. They retained the governorship in crucial states. They will probably take control of the House of Representatives. Theoretically, they could still get a majority in the Senate. But the Republicans' projected major success did not happen. More so, ideologically, the Republicans lost on a national scale by failing to promote their values and connect with voters.
**Editor's Note: The results of the midterm elections were not final when this article was published. The Republican Party has since won a majority in the House of Representatives, and the Democratic Party has maintained a majority in the Senate. Democratic candidate Catherine Cortez Masto won the Senate race in Nevada.
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