Is Trump in Trouble? Some Already Detect Signs of Defection in Rubio and Vance

Published in Sina
(China) on 29 April 2026
by 科罗廖夫 (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jules Roach. Edited by Michelle Bisson.
Is Trump in trouble now? Some already see signs of defection in Marco Rubio and JD Vance.

Following America’s unsuccessful operations in Iran, top members of the U.S. government have apparently changed their positions. Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern said on a podcast episode that it is likely that Donald Trump is in trouble. Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, among others, might abandon him and distance themselves just like “rats fleeing a sinking ship.”

McGovern said that most rational people understand one point: America has already suffered setbacks in this war. It’s hard to say from the outside whether or not Trump’s right-hand men can inform the president about the actual situation or advance reasonable recommendations.

The question raised by this analyst is one that the entire world is curious about: Does Trump himself actually understand the state of the war?

After all, this is the president who has shared babbling nonsense in social media updates. He has also raised international suspicions that he is either a masterful actor or the White House is circling around his narratives of triumph, selectively presenting information favorable to the United States. This evidently makes his judgment “distorted,” and, regarding strategic decisions, to pass down unreasonable orders. So, step-by-step, America is sinking into this quagmire.

Apart from the war itself, the change in Trump’s right-hand men has garnered widespread attention, especially about Vance and Rubio. It is widely believed that one of these men might be the next president of the United States. However, their stances have followed opposite paths before the war and since the ceasefire.

Let’s examine Rubio first. For a long time, he was considered the accomplice to Trump’s remarks. Whenever the president would toss around threats, Rubio was the first to supply all the details and possibilities necessary to elevate the effect of his statements.

Before the air raid on Tehran, the secretary of state constantly briefed Trump, professing his all-out support for launching the strike. Vance, who had advised the president to proceed with caution, faded from the public eye during this time.

Some American media believe that when Trump has set his mind to take action, he sinks into a belligerently frenetic state and demands approval and words of affirmation. Consequently, he only listens to his greatest supporters and isn’t concerned about the war backfiring. Vance’s cool-headed suggestions are thereby not even considered.

According to some reports, the U.S. president held a meeting with Republican Party donors before the war. In that meeting, Rubio’s shouted demands overshadowed Vance. Per some media outlets, this reflects the core of Republican political capital, which tends entirely toward belligerence.


At the start of the war, Trump set up a provisional situation room in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, so that he and Rubio could follow the course of operations together. By contrast, Vance was 1,300 kilometers (about 808 miles) away in Washington.

Some media outlets surmise that this signals Vance has been relegated to the margins.

Although as a matter of convention, the U.S. president and vice president do not typically work together outside the White House — with the goal being to prevent the nation’s leaders from being wiped out by a single incident — the media’s doubts were by no means satisfied by arguments that the Iran war is unique and stringent security measures are in place.

However, as the war progressed, the strength of Iran’s counterattacks exceeded the entire world’s expectations and America has gradually lost control. After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz set off an economic energy crisis, the calls for ceasefire among the populace have little by little reached the nation’s top command.

Internationally, the widespread view is that America already wants to give up. However, Trump doesn’t know how to make a graceful exit; after all, he has already sent out so many statements claiming victory. If America suddenly withdrew, it would make it look like the president’s reputation and impact have collapsed and lead to a total decline in approval ratings for himself and the Republican Party.

Even more importantly, an American president with a severely histrionic personality will never allow himself to be kicked off the world stage in a humiliating manner by Iran, which he had previously considered thoroughly unimportant.

One man who took a stand during this time was Vance, who had been almost forgotten by the public. About 10 days before the ceasefire agreement, he was the first to make his position clear. He stated that America would finish the war and leave Iran at a reasonable time, explicitly signaling that the highest authorities might pull back. Soon after, the vice president made a great effort to weaken the possibility of escalation and to maintain Trump’s reputation.

Now that the ceasefire agreement has been reached, media leaks reveal that it was Vance who dissuaded Trump at the 11th hour and thus prevented the situation from spiraling out of control. The vice president has now also assumed the role of leading the negotiation delegation.

The influence in Trump’s inner circle has changed, reversed from before the war.

According to European media analysis, this situation has arisen because America can no longer rely solely on Trump’s “social media governance;" the system’s safety net is exhausted. Solving this rotten mess requires people who can handle issues practically.

Although Vance is also a member of Trump’s limitless support crowd, he and Rubio have different styles. It’s as if the secretary of state is focused on playing the role of obedient attendant, while the vice president wants to be part of the deeper, decision-making level of the government.

U.S. media articles assert that the facts prove Vance is the one more useful to Trump. As Rubio frantically crowds around the president but obtains nothing valuable for his efforts, he may decide to start distancing himself from Trump.

Meanwhile, Vance, currently leading the delegation, has been sent by Trump on an extremely difficult job: negotiating victory over Iran. The subtle differences between the pre-war stances of these two men may be a direct cause of a rift in their relationship. This inference happens to coincide with McGovern’s analysis.


特朗普现在情况不妙?有人发现鲁比奥和万斯,已经有了反水的迹象。

随着美国对伊作战不利,白宫高层各自的态度也出现了变化。前中情局分析师麦戈文在一档节目中表示,特朗普现在情况可能不妙,副总统万斯、国务卿鲁比奥,还有防长赫格塞思等人,或许会弃他而去,就像“老鼠逃离沉船”那样。

麦戈文认为,大多数理智的人都明白一点,美国已经在战争中遭受了挫败。特朗普的这些身边人,能不能将实际情况告诉总统,并提出理智的建议,外界对此很难猜测。

这位分析师所提出的问题,也是现在全世界所好奇的一个点,那就是特朗普本人究竟对战况了解如何。

毕竟,这位总统在社交媒体上,接近“胡言乱语”级别的局势简报,令国际上都在怀疑,要么他是一个技艺精湛的“演员”,要么就是白宫围绕着他的胜利叙事,选择性地呈现了有利于美国的信息,使其判断出现了“失真”,并在战略选择上,下达了不合理的指令,从而一步步将美国推进了泥潭。

(万斯是美国谈判代表团长)

除了战局本身外,特朗普身边人的变化,也受到了广泛关注,尤其是万斯和鲁比奥。舆论普遍认为,下一任美国总统,可能就会从这二位之中诞生。但战前和停火之后,两人的地位却呈现出相反的走向。

首先来看鲁比奥。长期以来,他都作为特朗普言论的“补充者”而存在。每当总统抛出一个及具威胁性的话语时,鲁比奥总是会在第一时间,将各种细节和可能性补齐,使前者的威慑度急剧提升。

空袭德黑兰之前,这位国务卿就一直在特朗普耳边吹风,全力支持其发动打击的意图。而提醒总统要谨慎行事的万斯,在这个阶段淡出了舆论舞台。

有美媒认为,特朗普已经决定好要动手后,整个人就会陷入一种好战的狂热模式,需要的是认同感和促进信心的声音,因此只会考虑谁更支持自己,不会多加顾虑战争的反噬。万斯这种相对冷静一点的意见,就不会被纳入考量范围。

据报道,战前美国总统举行了一次共和党的投资方会议,现场对于鲁比奥的呼声要大于万斯。媒体认为,这反映出整个共和党的核心资本,都倾向于好战型。

(鲁比奥如今存在感已经不高)

开战当天,特朗普在佛罗里达的海湖庄园里,搭起了临时作战室,鲁比奥与其共同观看了行动全程。而万斯则在1300公里外的华盛顿。

有媒体对此猜测,这或许是万斯被边缘化的信号。

尽管根据惯例,美国总统和副总统,一般不在白宫之外的地方共同办公,目的是为了防止领导层出现意外被“一锅端”。但这次对伊作战的特殊性,以及足够严密的安全保障,这个理由并不能完全解释舆论的疑惑。

但随着战局推进,伊朗的反击力度超出了全世界的预料,美国逐渐陷入了被动。当霍尔木兹海峡被封锁,引起了能源经济危机之后,停战的呼声就从民间一点点传递至高层。

国际上普遍认为,这个时候美国已经想要收手了。但是特朗普不知道该如何体面地离场,毕竟此前发了那么多“胜利”言论,如果突然撤退,作为总统的信誉和影响力都将崩塌,进而导致自己和共和党的支持率全面下滑。

(海湖庄园临时作战室,特朗普和鲁比奥观看行动全程)

更重要的是,表演型人格严重的美国总统,也不允许自己以狼狈的姿态,从世界舞台上,被自己以前根本没放在眼里的伊朗给“踢下去”。

这个时候站出来的人,是已经快被大众忘却的万斯。他在停火协议前十天左右,率先出来表态,称美国将会在合适的时间结束战争,离开伊朗,释放了最高层可能收手的明确信号。随后这位副总统,一直努力去淡化战争升级的可能,并努力维护特朗普的“面子”。

媒体透露,如今停火协议能够达成,就是万斯在最后时刻,及时劝阻了特朗普,避免态势向着不可挽回的方向发展。如今美国谈判代表团长,也由这位副总统来担任。

特朗普身边的核心势力变化,也与战前发生了颠倒。

(媒体普遍认为,特朗普已经不知道该怎么解决伊朗问题了)

欧洲媒体对此分析,这种情况的出现,在于美国如今已经不能仅靠特朗普的“社交媒体治国”来发展了,制度的兜底性已经被总统耗干。危机之下必须有能处理实际问题的人,来解决这个“烂摊子”。

万斯虽然也是特朗普的“无底线簇拥者”之一,但他和鲁比奥是两种风格,国务卿似乎更加侧重于当好随从者的角色,而副总统则想要深度参与到治理体系的决策层中。

美媒则认为,事实证明了,万斯才是对特朗普“更有用”的那一个。当鲁比奥疯狂簇拥总统,却得不到被重视的结果时,他或许会选择和特朗普开始保持距离。

而眼下作为代表团长的万斯,也被特朗普委派了一个极难实现的工作,那就是在谈判中取得对德黑兰的胜利。二者在战前立场中的微妙分歧,或许也会在这轮工作中,成为关系疏离的直接缘由。这个推论,与麦戈文的分析不谋而合。
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